Most tipsters, particularly those who bet on their predictions, no matter how they are arrived at, have their own understanding of the “FEEL” concept.
“FEEL?” The very word stimulates thought and the search for understanding. It suggests both psychological and physiological reactions. During our waking hours, it is our consciousness that dominates mental activity, while when we sleep, it is our subconscious mind that becomes active. Our subconscious mind is our storehouse of accumulated data and information. It is not rational, but it can be superimposed on our reasoning, that is, the deductive and inductive processes. The results of this can be both positive and negative.
In simple terms, the subconscious mind can manifest itself in “gut feelings.” When these “gut feelings” are bad, they represent a direct manifestation of conflicts between the conscious and subconscious mind.
Let me give you a very important clue about “FEEL”, when it is valid, when it is not and WHY. We have all experienced at some time, if not several times, what happens when we hit a losing streak. No matter how we try to rationalize or explain it, there is no way of knowing why it happened or when it will end. Nor is there anyone who can completely escape the emotional and psychological consequences that accompany losing streaks or winning streaks. It always seems that losing begets losing and winning begets win. The phenomenon is easily understood when one understands how the human mind works and how it integrates with the nervous system. The truth remains that emotions can short-circuit reasoning. This is undoubtedly one of the biggest advantages that the bookmaker has over the player, because the bookmaker’s action is emotionless. Offshore and Nevada sportsbooks and their computers to move the line based on money wagered. This is a strictly mechanical process and is NEVER influenced by opinion or emotion. These nemeses are particular only to those sports bettors trying to challenge point spreads or bookmaker odds.
A very typical use of the same approach for the problem of predicting winners by the player is the computer. Since the inception of the computer, there have been a number of people who have made a lot of money by correctly programming a computer to make their selections. The famous (?) “Computer Boys” of Las Vegas extracted millions of dollars from the sports betting market in Las Vegas, and quite likely elsewhere. The computer has no “FEELING” to distort its functions, but all relevant factors must be correctly programmed into the device for it to produce positive results.
Most handicappers, who rely on or use computers, limit themselves to nothing more than basic stats, using them in a static, common way. So almost all of these forecasters return the same results. This makes Linesmaker’s job super simple. She posts figures that are as close as possible to the results these unthinking, stereotypical “experts” get. The “Computer Boys”, and others of the same type, are not limited to these static values. No, they have overlaid the standard stats with numerical values to the many intangibles. Through in-depth analysis, they have established point values (runs in baseball) for a myriad of situations, as well as team emotions, travel schedules and conditions, weather where applicable, home court and home field advantages, and more. They have realistically incorporated the strength of the opposition at the times the games were played. They have dictated the quality and style of coaching matches, as well as the role referees play in the game. I’m sure this hasn’t been the full range of their considerations, but I’m also sure the successful ones haven’t left too much of the relevant out of their equations. Therefore, the computational approach has eliminated the roller coaster effect of sports prediction. That is, of course, if what is programmed is precise, intelligent and relevant. Through proper use of the computer, “FEEL” is translated into REAL values and you are no longer subject to the unreliable range of human emotions that can be easily affected and distorted by subconscious conflicts.
The human factor cannot be completely ignored. Associated with “FEEL” are qualitative rather than quantitative values. Internal team issues, injuries, weather, and unusual situations and conditions can always crop up and skew overall quants. This is where the ART of handicap comes into play. This art, or talent, if you will, is another way of “FEELING”, and it can be translated into a rational value for decision-making, since it is based on accumulated experience. The trick is being able to see the whole picture before you paint it. The “FEEL” value comes into play after the number applications have been exhausted.
There are virtually an unlimited number of variables in a game in which as many as a hundred or more people can play a direct role (NFL). Combining this with the rules of the games and their interpretation, adherence and judgment often leaves CHANCE to play a much more decisive role in a given game than the overall quality and/or ability of the team. With all this opposition to predicting the outcome of games, plus overcoming the bookie’s advantage, it’s almost a miracle that anyone can win on the handicap in the long run.
This always leaves an advantage for the sports bettor and a very big advantage is the mediocrity of public opinion. No matter how sophisticated computers get, the vast majority will follow their flat egos and opinions. Their share of the total money wagered is a very large percentage of the sports betting money exchange market. Sportsbooks abroad and in Nevada, and thousands of sportsbooks across the country and beyond, thrive on this unique and ever-present fact.
The next time you “FEEL” that you have the “right side,” give some thought to objectivism.