When the stay-in-place orders began for the coronavirus, time at home seemed like a break from the frenzy of office life. With considerable curiosity, I absorbed the statistics, news articles, videos, and almost all the information that I could find. New concepts of the day highlighted: social distancing, flattening of the curve, asymptomatic and reaching the top. The stories of human suffering, sudden appearance, and family tragedy are a heartbreaking addition to the evening news.
Despite all the focus on the pandemic, there are quiet but firm voices on the economy. However, these voices are not strong enough to counter the hysteria of the virus. What are we going to do? Is it realistic to simply shut down the economy for an unspecified period of time? Imagine not paying the mortgage.
Of course, warning signs will appear after 30 days, and there’s still plenty of time to get things back on track. At 60 days, the mortgage company demands letters and the phone calls become continuous. Credit is severely degraded and all parties involved know that without a major change, the full impact of the foreclosure train crash is just around the corner.
Since I live on the outskirts of Denver, visiting small towns in the country is just a short drive away. I often take shopping trips to these places in an attempt to push my spending towards entrepreneurs, who can make a considerable profit. I often ask how things are going with the current situation. The first response I see is the fear in his eyes for the unknown. A gas station manager told me that his cash register often makes less than $ 100 in an entire day. Projecting to 30 days, imagine trying to run a business with $ 3,000 per month to pay for rent, employees, vendors, and still make a living.
The federal government is making a valiant attempt to support individual and business bills through stimulus packages and unemployment compensation. With a combined federal debt level of $ 20 trillion, how much more debt can we absorb without seriously damaging our economy for generations? Despite the best of intentions, millions of people and businesses will never recover financially for many years. A bankruptcy at the end of a career will postpone and permanently alter retirement.
There is another way forward to avoid the train wreck and out of financial despair. First, insist on shelter-in-place for the elderly, anyone with an existing health condition, and residents of the worst-hit areas, such as New York City, Detroit, and New Orleans. Next, starting with rural areas with a modest number of cases, open the economy with established social distancing guidelines. As the virus continues to slow down, pull back on remaining businesses with altered arrangements such as fewer tables per location for restaurants and customer limits with other retail businesses. Large-scale teleworking, masks, and testing can also be implemented.
There are millions of people, like me, who are willing to accept the risk of contracting the virus to protect our own livelihoods and to contribute to the resurgence of the economy. If someone is uncomfortable, they can opt out for now and re-enter later, provided they understand the financial risks. The longer shelter orders remain in place, deaths from economic despair will begin to significantly exceed deaths from the virus.
Public health experts have done an amazing job outlining protocols for managing the pandemic through social distancing, which most Americans have followed. However, the limits of your experience are fast approaching. They are not economists, business managers or those who live from paycheck to paycheck. The time has come for ordinary, healthy people to speak out loud about their desire to return to work and return to normal life. Our future depends on it!